Air Cargo Peak Season: Quiet Confidence or Quiet Panic?

Peak season is officially “on paper” - but the mood across the air cargo sector is more watchful waiting than full-throttle demand. Forwarders are gearing up to release their earnings, and the numbers will say far more about the real state of the market than any glossy forecast.

Behind the curtain, the big players, DSV, K+N, DHL, the usual suspects, are signalling a softer surge this year. Demand is patchy, capacity is lumpy, and premium uplift isn’t behaving like a traditional peak. Translation: if there’s a squeeze, it’ll be selective, not global.

What we’re really seeing:

• Premium lanes will tighten — not all lanes

• Capacity is “fine” until it suddenly isn’t

• Forwarders are protecting yield more than chasing volume

• Peak season may be more margin play than volume story

In other words: this year’s “peak” might be less about cargo flying — and more about pricing strategy and who blinks first.

For shippers: If you’re relying on spot rates to get you through December… don’t. Carrier behaviour is shifting quietly, and earnings reports will tell us where the pain lands first. The winners will be the ones booking early or hedging smart — not rolling the dice on late space.

This isn’t a surge. It’s a chessboard.

Stay tuned — the body language from the forwarders in their earnings calls will be more revealing than the numbers themselves.

Sources: The Loadstar