Mid-November Market Update - Carriers Hit Pause on Rate Frenzy.

After weeks of suspense, the second-half November rate announcements have finally dropped - later than expected and following a period of intense psychological swings among carriers.

The final outcome? A mix of bold ambition, strategic retreat, and subtle recalibration across the China–Australia trade.

A Market That Overheated... Then Hesitated

The first half of November roared to life just as predicted. South China and North China were on fire - space shortages, rollovers, and near-perfect vessel utilisation. East China lagged slightly, but as carriers redirected space southward, the entire CN–AU trade lane hit volumes surpassing late October’s fever pitch.

The key catalysts driving this surge were:

1. The last pre-Christmas cargo rush (shipments that had to sail).

2. Trump’s tariff threats on China–U.S. trade lanes rippling into Asia–Pacific routes.

3. Limited peak-season capacity - only three small 1,000 TEU vessels added.

4. The lingering backlog from China’s Golden Week.

Carriers, riding this inertia, initially went all-in on aggressive GRIs (up to USD 500/1,000), expecting the rally to hold through November. But as new schedules rolled out, reality set in: vessels departing after November 15th would arrive dangerously close to Christmas... a period when Australian consignees prefer minimal deliveries due to holiday staffing and storage constraints.

The Mood Swings: From Overconfidence to Correction

Premium carriers initially tabled rates as high as USD 2,400 per TEU, while Mid-Range alliance members aimed for USD 2,250 per TEU.

But by mid-month, it became clear the market was cooling.

Budget carriers read the room early, adjusting to more sustainable levels. Their realism sparked a ripple effect - a soft correction that others soon followed. Still, premium providers held firm, banking on schedule reliability and brand strength to justify higher pricing.

East Coast Rates Snapshot (15–30 November)

• Budget Services – USD 1,700- 1750 per TEU

• Mid-Tier Services – USD 1,850 per TEU

• Premium Services – USD 2,200 per TEU

These represent initial “test the market” levels and may evolve further as late-November vessels near cutoff.

Australia West Coast: Strength with a Hint of Strain

On the Australia West Coast trade, rates have continued to edge upward, reflecting steady demand and ongoing congestion at key transshipment hubs. Most carriers have introduced moderate increases for the second half of November, with full-container load pricing now sitting in the range of USD 1,350–2050 per TEU.

The Cargo Confidential Take

Carriers have enjoyed a rare winning streak since September, but cracks are beginning to appear. As December looms, the combination of holiday slowdowns and a backlog of pre-season cargo will test whether the market’s heat can endure.

For now, rates remain high but volatile - a market caught between momentum and moderation. Expect more recalibration in the final two weeks of November as carriers juggle profitability, utilisation, and the looming December lull.

As always, The Cargo Confidential will keep you updated the moment rate adjustments or new GRI notices surface.

Stay sharp, stay strategic - and don’t get swept up in the post-peak haze.