November GRIs: What’s Coming & Why It Matters.

As we head into November, carriers are lining up another round of General Rate Increases (GRIs) on Asia–Australia routes, and this round is more than a routine adjustment.

The China–Australia market has officially tipped into peak-season territory - and not the gentle, seasonal kind. What began as a strong late-October rally has now escalated sharply, with carriers pushing freight rates to levels not seen since early 2024. GRIs announced for early November are not simply opportunistic; they are a structured attempt to reset the rate floor before year-end.

Here’s the low-down as far as current signals are concerned:

Carrier	Quota (per TEU)	Origin(s)	Destination(s)	Commencement Date
MSC	USD500.00	North Asia	AU/NZ	1st Nov 2025
MSC	USD200.00	Southeast Asia	AU/NZ	1st Nov 2025
OOCL	USD500.00	Northeast Asia	AU	1st Nov 2025
OOCL	USD300.00	Asia	NZ	1st Nov 2025
ANL	USD300.00	Northeast Asia	AU	8th Nov 2025

Carriers are now implementing GRIs of roughly USD 500 per TEU in early November, not as a one-off, but to re-establish a higher base rate while demand remains white-hot.

Capacity is so tight that MSC - one of the most cautious in Q3 - is now among the most aggressive.

Demand is booming. Overflow is real. And this time, the supplier (carriers) are dictating the tempo.

When October rate sheets were confirmed, the market looked firm but manageable. That expectation evaporated within days.

Yes, there are ad-hoc sailings being injected - mostly TS Lines small to mid-size loaders - but these are capacity relief, not capacity reset.

Vessel	Service	Capacity	Window	Arrivals
TS TACOMA	CA3	2,750 TEU	Late Oct / Early Nov	19–25 Nov (AU East Coast)
TS KWANGYANG	CA3	2,750 TEU	7–11 Nov loadings	21–27 Nov arrivals
TS CHENNAI	CA3	1,400 TEU	8–14 Nov loadings	27 Nov–2 Dec arrivals

These are helpful — but nowhere near enough to offset the volume avalanche.

The “Butterfly Effect” Trigger: U.S. Tariff Shock

One of the most powerful accelerants wasn’t domestic to Australia at all... it came from Washington.

Former U.S. President Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods from 1 November created a pre-deadline export stampede out of China. Factories that export to the U.S. moved aggressively to clear cargo before the tariff became effective - flooding the Transpacific market with last-minute pulls.

Result:

• Transpacific ships were suddenly overbooked again

• Excess tonnage that might have been redirected to Australia stayed put

• China–Australia got the demand spike without the benefit of influx capacity

The U.S. sneezed... and the AU lane caught the cold.

What This Means For Australian Importers

• Rates remain elevated into mid-November

• Space priority is king — late booking = rollover risk

• Any unlocked volumes are exposed to GRI uplift

• Southbound is now carrier-controlled pricing, not market-led

Even if the second half of November cools slightly, this first-half squeeze is already fully priced in.

Want a full lane-by-lane breakdown (Australia-Asia, Asia-US, Intra-Asia) and carrier-specific GRI advice? That’s in this month’s Logistics Report for subscribers.