Two Steps Forward, One Tariff Back: US-China Eases, Canada Tensions Rise.

The global trade landscape is once again shifting under our feet. While the US and China have reached a tentative trade agreement that offers a brief sense of stability, US forwarders are now facing a new headache - potential tariffs on Canada.

The result? Another round of uncertainty is rippling through supply chains already stretched by congestion, rerouting, and capacity strain.

The New Tariff Tangle

US forwarders are voicing strong concern over the threat of a 10% tariff on Canadian imports. This would come despite both countries being long-standing partners under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

The implications are immediate. A tariff of that size would upend long-established cross-border flows between the two nations - flows that underpin much of North America’s logistics ecosystem. For forwarders and shippers, this isn’t just about cost. It’s about compliance, documentation, and risk exposure in every shipment that touches Canadian soil.

Routes may have to be re-evaluated, origin declarations scrutinised, and supply chains rebalanced. For air freight in particular, where margins are already narrow, this could mean repricing, re-routing, or even rethinking entire fulfilment strategies.

The China Contrast

In sharp contrast, the recent breakthrough between the US and China signals a temporary cooling of trade tensions. It’s a move that offers a sigh of relief for global freight networks, particularly those in Asia–Oceania who depend on the stability of this corridor.

While details remain limited, the agreement points to a pause in tariff escalation and a potential rebound in US–China trade flows. For shippers, it could mean more predictable air freight capacity, steadier rate structures, and a slight easing of the volatility that defined 2025’s first half.

Still, optimism is guarded. The fundamentals of trade friction haven’t disappeared, they’ve just shifted theatres. As one region stabilises, another starts to flare.

The Bigger Picture

The simultaneous developments in North America and Asia underline a critical truth: the global supply chain is being pulled in opposing directions. On one side, geopolitical compromise is offering temporary relief. On the other hand, protectionist impulses are reasserting themselves.

For logistics professionals, it’s a reminder that agility isn’t optional. The capacity to pivot routes, recalibrate landed costs, and manage regulatory change in real time is what separates the resilient from the reactive.

Forwarders handling trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic cargo are already reworking models to account for:

• Increased lead times due to documentation checks.

• Potential air cargo diversions away from Canadian gateways.

• Shifting volume patterns out of Chinese ports as trade confidence rebuilds.

• Ongoing volatility in freight pricing and space allocation.

The Bottom Line

This week’s trade headlines capture the mood of global logistics perfectly: a sigh of relief mixed with a sharp intake of breath. The China deal offers short-term predictability, but the Canadian tariff threat reminds us that the calm never lasts long.

For shippers and forwarders, the next phase will be about managing contrasts, balancing optimism in one lane with caution in another.

Trade may be global, but disruption is always local.

Sources: Air Cargo News, The Loadstar