The Cargo Confidential: AU Peak Season goes BOOM.

The China–Australia trade lane has officially caught fire. What was meant to be a “strong but manageable” second half of October has turned into full-scale peak season mania - the kind we actually feel in the market, not just read on a slide deck.

Here’s how the market is shaking out by tier:

SERVICE TIER	TYPICAL RATE LEVEL (Nov 1–14)	WHAT YOU’RE REALLY BUYING
BUDGET	USD 1,600 - 1700 per TEU	Cheapest TEU cost, slower TLC: longer transits, higher roll risk, ad-hoc extra loaders used to mop up space, fewer scheduling guarantees
MID-TIER	USD 1,700-1800 per TEU	Quicker lanes, more stable space, better reliability during peak, slightly higher priority for equipment + loading
PREMIUM	USD 1,850 -2000 per TEU	Priority loading + equipment, better uplift protection, smoother landside performance, first to secure ETA integrity in congestion

This is the cleanest gap we’ve seen in 2025:

• USD 250–500 spread between tiers, depending on port pair

• A widening premium gap as space becomes the commodity, not price.

What's driving the surge?

1️⃣ Tariff shock spillover (US 100% tariff threat → surge in China factory exports → capacity redeployed to Transpacific → AU left short on tonnage)

2️⃣ Christmas demand + tariff pull-forward colliding at once

3️⃣ Very limited extra loaders - the “safety valves” are too small to dent demand

Market Temperature Check

Window	Market Condition	Risk
1st half Nov	🔥 Very firm	Full vessels + oversubscription
Mid-Nov	🔒 Stable holding	Only tactical softening possible in the Budget tier
Late Nov	❄️ Softening risk	More likely to be space-driven than price-driven

Carriers know they have leverage - so they’re using it. This is controlled tightening, not chaos.

Key Takeaways for Customers

✅ If you need certainty: Mid or Premium tiers

✅ If you need the cheapest freight: Budget, but pad for roll risk

✅ If you ship late-Nov: timing > rate

✅ Secure allocation early - not all “capacity” is real capacity right now

Consider the Following:

• Lock in bookings early - don’t wait for last-minute “deals”

• Avoid overflow dependence (rolls are back)

• Premium carriers are commanding premium behaviour

• Space, not price, is the real risk window

Peak season has turned into a capacity auction. The smartest play right now isn’t finding the lowest number - it’s making sure you’re actually on the vessel.

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