The Cargo Confidential: Golden Week Market Update.

👀 Spotted: China’s Golden Week (Oct 1–8) — the holiday that sends ripples through the entire global supply chain. With National Day and Mid-Autumn overlapping, carriers are bracing for disruption while shippers scramble to get space.

🚨 Asia-Pacific

Pre-holiday rush: Vessels sailing Oct 1–8 already jammed with late September cargo. Carriers offering extended free time, then overbooking to the brim.

Rates: Budget carriers dropped to $1,100–1,200/TEU, mid-tier services hovering ~$1,200–1,300, while premium lines still demand $1,400+.

What’s next: From Oct 15, GRIs kick in (+$300/TEU on China–Australia), tightening space through mid-November.

🚨 South China & Southeast Asia

South China: Typhoon Ragasa delays are still unwinding; trucking stretched to 3 days per turnaround. Post-holiday, expect rolled containers and a rate squeeze.

Southeast Asia: Rates steady at $1,000–1,300/TEU, but blank sailings line up mid-October, shrinking available capacity.

🚨 US Market

Transpacific: Shanghai–LA down ~10% to $2,300/FEU, Shanghai–NY down ~8% to $3,300. Peak Season Surcharge deferred till Oct 15. Carriers are pulling services to stop further bleeding.

🚨 Europe

Asia–Europe: Rates dropped 7–9%, Drewry WCI now at $1,761/FEU. Despite 25% blank sailings in Weeks 40–41, demand remains weak.

Port congestion: Antwerp reefers at 95%, Valencia wait times near 3 days, and (yes, again) French strikes loom Oct 2.

✈️ Airfreight

Rates: Global average edged up 1% WoW to $2.44/kg, though still ~5% below last year. Taiwan the outlier with double-digit growth on semiconductors.

Disruptions: Typhoon Ragasa + Golden Week factory closures = volatile spot markets.

🌎 Global Overview

Reliability: Flatlined at 65–68% since May. Maersk leads at 76%, ONE trails at 55%.

Capacity: 544,000 TEU withdrawn across Asia–Europe and TPEB in the past month — alliances playing the same old game: restrict supply, protect rates.

📌 The Bottom Line: Golden Week is less about lanterns and fireworks, more about blank sailings and rate resets. Importers should brace for congestion, higher rates, and a tight market running into November.